The Trump guilty verdict shows the importance of character

Yesterday, a jury in New York City found former President Donald Trump guilty on 34 felony counts. It was an astounding moment in history—a former president of the United States convicted by a unanimous jury of 12 ordinary citizens. Sentencing has been scheduled for July 11—right before the Republican convention. And no doubt many appeals will be filed in the meantime.

But is this a game changer? If it is, it will not be because of the legal issues involved. It will be because the trial revealed something fundamental about Donald Trump’s personal character.

The evidence of the trial convinced the jury about a narrative that said Trump had an affair with a porn star while his wife was home with their newborn baby boy. Let’s focus on this. Millions of American women have given birth and can empathize with the sense of vulnerability and the exhaustion most women feel immediately after the birth of a baby. Having a straying husband is bad—having a straying husband while you are recovering from childbirth? Unforgiveable. No wonder Melania—unlike many political wives before her—did not go near that courtroom in New York and has been completely silent on the legal proceedings.

As the trial progressed, the prosecution had to prove that the cover-up existed—that was a cinch because of the loads of checks and corroborative testimony from several individuals to prove it. But to make it a felony, they also had to prove that Trump’s motive was not to keep the affair from his wife—which is an understandable human impulse. As testimony seeped out, it became clear that Trump’s motive was not to protect his wife but to promote his election. In fact, Michael Cohen testified that Trump told him he wasn’t worried about Melania at all. Yet he was worried about the effect of the Stormy Daniels story and others like it on female voters.

And that is why this verdict is likely to impact the election. Unlike issues of constitutional immunity for a president, unlike issues surrounding the classification of documents, and unlike issues surrounding the technicalities of vote counting—this trial revolves around a human story that everyone understands—a wandering husband who cares only for his own success and not for his wife and newborn baby.

So, what about the effects on the election? If we’ve learned anything about Trump voters it’s that they are blind in their devotion to Trump. They are likely to believe Trump’s lies that the jury was rigged, Biden was behind the indictment, and important evidence was faked, as well as many other pieces of disinformation that will emerge in the coming months. Many Democrats are just as firm in their belief that Trump is guilty of covering up his alleged infidelity, as well as many other offenses, in order to help his campaign. As months of polling have shown, the 2024 presidential race is very close—with an edge to Biden when only very regular voters are polled but with a large edge to Trump when less frequent voters are polled.

With a race this close, Trump is right to worry about female voters, especially in swing state suburban areas. According to the Center for American Women and Politics, “In every presidential election since 1980, the proportion of eligible female adults who voted has exceeded the proportion of eligible male adults who voted.”

Unlike minority groups, women are fairly evenly distributed across the United States and therefore have the potential to determine the outcome in crucial swing states. At least some of them are likely to conclude that Donald Trump does not have the character to be president, and that could be decisive in the fall general election.